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SECTION (10.1)
Current Affairs in Pakistan Market
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Pakistan Flood Losses
AlJazeera News Article - October 07, 2022
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Section added: November 17, 2022
FATF: Pakistan's Grey List Status
Arif Habib Limited (Research Section) - October 21, 2022
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Business Recorder News Article - October 20, 2022
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Section added: October 21, 2022
Power Sector Circular Debt and
Future of IPPs
What is Power Sector Circular Debt Crisis?
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/BUH0GQMW5zo
You can download full YouTube Video (size 13MB) by clicking the below icon.
Understanding Pakistan’s Power Sector - Investing Strategy
Twitter Space Telecast by Surmaaya.pk dt: October 01, 2022
Section added: October 03, 2022
Pakistan Stock Exchange - PSX Index Trend since 2 years and forecast review
Summary and Technical Analysis
Voice note in mp3 file format can be downloaded by clicking the below icon.
Section added: August 12, 2022
Pakistan Stock Exchange - PSX Index vs Interest Rate
Section added: August 05, 2022
Pakistan’s GDP growth in FY22
Pakistan Economy - May 19, 2022
Pakistan’s GDP growth at 5.97% in FY22
The National Accounts Committee (NAC), in its 105th meeting, reviewed and finalized National Accounts for FY22. The estimates of GDP growth for FY22 came out to be 5.97% compared to 5.74% growth recorded in FY21. This number—especially the quantum of rate of growth reflects impressive performance across all major sectors of the economy. A growth friendly budget with an expansionary fiscal policy coupled with a low interest rate regime helped keep the economy upbeat. As expected, vaccination rollout across the world significantly improved the COVID situation and opened up global trade thereby giving a drastic push to the trade volumes. Moreover the manufacturing sector posted healthy numbers on the back of robust activity across all cyclical sectors as reflected in the LSM data. Agriculture produce too improved during the year, resulting in higher growth of the sector.
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GDP growth rates at Constant Prices on new base of 2015-16 stand at 5.97%.
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Sector wise estimates show that:
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Services sector growth is estimated at 6.19% in FY22 vs 6.00% in FY21
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Industry sector growth is estimated at 7.19% in FY22 vs 7.81% last year
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Agriculture sector growth is estimated at 4.40% in FY22 vs 3.48% in FY21
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The size of Pakistan’s economy is expected to be PKR 66,950bn in FY22 compared to PKR 55,796bn recorded in FY21.
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During FY22, the Per Capita Income increased to PKR 314,353 (equivalent to USD 1,798).
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In dollar terms, the size of the economy reached to USD 382.8bn.
Source: Arif Habib Limited
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Section added: May 20, 2022
Pak. Oil Reserve/ E&P Sector
Punjab: Huge oil well started production
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/QFkN54dxXLE
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GROUP DISCUSSION
Oil & Gas Exploration/ E&P Sector
Refer to this news item https://tribune.com.pk/story/2263143/a-good-sized-gas-discovery-in-kalat
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Section added: May 10, 2022
MSCI PSX Index Review
MSCI Index Review Dates:
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Additional news source:
MSCI Equity Index_May 13:
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Section added: May 06, 2022
Updated: May 13, 2022
Govt drafts oil refining policy to seek $15bn from China, Saudi Arabia
By Tanveer Malik (The News)
07 October 2022
KARACHI: Government has devised draft oil refining policy 2022 to attract up to $15 billion in investment from Saudi Arabia and China for setting up a new
refinery mainly, The News leant on Thursday.
“The work on the finalisation of the refining policy gained pace in the last few days and draft has been devised with the likely chances of giving it final touches in next week, when a meeting would be held on Monday,” sources privy to the development stated.
Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who would leave for China next week, wants to take along the final draft of the refining policy to attract Chinese investment, while talks were also underway with Saudi investors to woo them, sources revealed.
The refining policy is comprised of two components with one related to existing local refineries and the other about the investment for the new refinery in the country.
Government has been emphasising upon the five local refineries to upgrade, and that requires huge capital investment of around $4 to $4.5 billion that refineries have to arrange from their equity or via funding from lenders on commercial terms.
For this, refineries were required to improve their balance sheets.
Besides upgrading local refineries, there was a need for an additional refinery with 300,000 to 400,000 barrel per day capacity, along with petrochemical at a cost of $10-15 billion to meet the country’s demand, which was being catered through imports presently, sources
said.
The establishment of the new refinery requires considerable lead time and huge investment for which a policy along with attractive incentives need to be offered.
Sources said that the new refinery would be CtoC (crude to chemical) refinery and Saudi Arabia and China “can afford to put in the huge investment for such a big project”.
They disclosed that Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif would visit China in a few days, and he wanted to bring the investment from China in this sector by sharing with them the draft of this refining policy.
“Chinese are interested in the profit and they would invest if the return on investing for new refinery is promising,” the sources believed.
Likewise, Saudis were in a better position to invest in this sector because of strong petrochemical industry in their country.
According to sources, the work on the refining policy has been expedited after replacement of Secretary Petroleum Division Ali Raza Bhutta with Secretary Incharge Capt Muhammad Mahmood (retd).
“Three successive meetings have been held in the current week to finalise the refining policy and the forth one is scheduled for Monday to give it the final shape, which reflects the urgency on part of government to finalise it,” the sources said.would tackle the difference in prices on the political front.
Source: Govt drafts oil refining policy to seek $15bn from China, Saudi Arabia (thenews.com.pk)
Section added: October 21, 2022
Approval of new refinery policy linked to deregulation
By Khalid Mustafa (The News)
07 September 2022
ISLAMABAD: Approval of the much-delayed refining policy has now been linked with deregulation, with a top government official seeking input from local refineries for deregulation, which could also mean uneven POL prices across Pakistan.
A top government official said that it was high time to deregulate the whole oil and gas sector, including refineries. The deregulation could be in full or done in phases.
The official said that the “irritatingly long delay” in the approval of the new refining policy was a major hurdle in upgrading existing refineries and setting up new ones.
The draft refining policy remained unresolved for the last two years, but with the current coalition government taking charge in April 2022, the process to deregulate not only the whole oil and gas sector but also the refining sector has kick started, the official said.
To achieve that end, the government has tasked the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) to arrange a consultative meetings between refineries, oil marketing companies, Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC), and Oil Marketing Association of Pakistan (OMAP). After the brainstorming sessions, OGRA would finalise the terms of reference for the government’s consideration on how to advance the deregulation of the oil and gas sector.
Under the new scenario, oil marketing companies (OMCs), OCAC and OMAP met on Tuesday in the OGRA office in Islamabad for the consultative session. However, refineries would take part in the consultative session on September 12.
Experts said that the upgrade plans of refineries worth $4-5 billion, along with $8-10 billion investment in greenfield projects were delayed on account of delay in the approval of the new refining policy.
The policy draft saw many ups and downs in these two years, the latest being the current government’s pegging of deregulation with the policy.
It was learned that top functionaries of five local refineries – Pak-Arab Refinery, National Refinery, Attock Refinery, Cnergyico, and Pakistan Refinery would meet up at the OGRA office on September 12 with inputs for deregulation of the sector. The government wants to deregulate the price of petrol and diesel and the margins of OMCs and dealers.
Under the deregulated regime, POL prices would vary from city to city. Currently, the government was keeping POL prices uniform across the country through the Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM).
Under the deregulated regime, POL prices would differ based on how far an area was from the port and a refinery. This might trigger a situation that would not be in favour of the government. It remains to be seen how this coalition government would tackle the difference in prices on the political front.
Source: Approval of new refining policy linked to deregulation (thenews.com.pk)
Section added: September 16, 2022
Pak. Oil Refinery Policy 2021
Pakistan finalises its Oil Refinery Policy 2021
11 Aug 2021
The government of Pakistan has finalised the Pakistan Oil Refinery Policy 2021, which includes significant tax incentives - such as a 20-year income tax holiday for all taxes under the Income Tax Ordinance 2001, no import duties and sales tax on import of crude oil by refineries as of 1 July 2022, for existing refineries investing in upgrades and for new deep-conversion refinery projects. The new policy will apply to existing refineries committing to upgrade or modernise their facilities and to potential investors seeking to set up a world-scale (100,000 bbl/d and above) deep conversion refinery and petrochemical complex worth US$10-15bn in Pakistan.
Refineries with upgrading programmes will be granted tariff protections (10% import duty on motor gasoline and diesel) from 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2027, while new refinery projects will benefit from a new pricing mechanism. The Pakistan Oil Refinery Policy 2021 also revises the product pricing formula of refineries, which will be based on the "True Import Parity Price" (derived from the Arab Gulf Mean FOB price or from the Singapore Mean FOB price). The government will not provide any product offtake guarantees and refineries will be allowed to sell products to any marketing companies.
Soure: Pakistan finalises its Oil Refinery Policy 2021 | Enerdata
Additional Analysis: CCOE to discuss refinery policy (tribune.com.pk)
The News Analysis (Download PDF):
Expresss.PK (May 08, 2022): آئل ریفائنری پالیسی 2021ء حکومتی توجہ کی منتظر - ایکسپریس اردو (express.pk)
Business Recorder (May 10, 2022): BR-ePaper | May 10, 2022 | Page North Page 4 (brecorder.com)
GROUP Discussion
Note: All voice notes can be downloaded in mp3 file format